Grain Market Overview as of January 17, 2025 — Zerno.ru
Summary:
Global Wheat Prices:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT): Soft red winter wheat rose to 538.75 cents/bushel (+1.51%).
Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT): Hard red winter wheat fell to 548.50 cents/bushel (-0.59%).
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE): Hard red spring wheat decreased to 583.50 cents/bushel (-0.13%).
Corn and Rice:
CBOT Corn: Increased to 484.25 cents/bushel (+2.92%).
CBOT Rice: Rose to $14.53/cwt (+1.11%).
Russian Grain Prices (FOB Black Sea):
Wheat: Increased to $241.90/ton (+0.67%).
Barley: Rose to $214.30/ton (+4.03%).
Corn: Increased to $236.40/ton (+0.98%).
Russian wheat index (CPT Novorossiysk): Decreased to 18,028 RUB/ton (-0.67%).
Domestic Wheat Purchase Prices (4th Class, Protein 12.5%, Black and Azov Sea Ports):
Azov: 15,500 RUB/ton (unchanged).
Novorossiysk: 18,900 RUB/ton (unchanged).
Rostov-on-Don: 15,500 RUB/ton (unchanged).
Taganrog: 15,300 RUB/ton (unchanged).
Taman: 17,400 RUB/ton (-200 RUB).
Key Market News:
Sberbank exits the preferential lending program for agribusiness due to tighter monetary policy. Other banks will redistribute funding limits.
Grain sales from intervention fund will resume on January 27, 2025, with a government-approved target of 3 million tons of grain sales in 2025.
International Grain Council (IGC) reduced Russia’s grain production forecast to 116.1 million tons and export forecast to 50 million tons (-2.3 million from prior estimates).
GC "Delo" plans to enter grain trading and establish its own bulk fleet.
Export quota for February 15–June 30 will limit exports to 10.6 million tons of wheat, restricting other grains like corn and barley.
Approximately 25% of autumn sowing areas in Russia are insured, covering over 5 million hectares, with potential risks from severe frost due to a low-snow winter.
Arbitrage case regarding grain trader "Rodnye Polya" assets is now classified.
Regional Updates:
Kazakhstan: Reports of violations in grain transit to Russia; imports temporarily banned since October 17, 2024.
Ukraine: Grain exports reached nearly 24 million tons, including 10.3 million tons of wheat and 11.1 million tons of corn. Export forecasts for 2025 increased by the IGC.
Conclusion:
The global grain market shows mixed trends in wheat prices, while Russian domestic prices remain relatively stable. New export quotas and tighter policies may shape Russia’s grain export dynamics in 2025.
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