Slowdown in Wheat Exports from the Black Sea – SovEcon

Key Points:

• Russia’s Wheat Exports:

  • January 2025 exports are estimated at 1.8–2.2 million tons, down from 3.6 million tons in January 2024.

  • In the first two weeks of January, 0.9 million tons were shipped compared to 1.4 million tons the previous year.

• Ukraine’s Wheat Exports:

  • January 2025 exports are expected to be 0.8 million tons, compared to 1.6 million tons a year earlier.

  • In the first two weeks of January, 0.3 million tons were shipped compared to 0.5 million tons the previous year.

• Stock Levels:

  • As of December 1, 2024, Russian wheat stocks were 18.7 million tons, significantly lower than 24.8 million tons the previous year.

  • By the end of the 2024/25 season, Russian wheat stocks are forecasted to drop to 10.0 million tons from 20.2 million tons a year earlier.

  • Ukrainian wheat stocks are expected to fall to 0.8 million tons by the end of the 2024/25 season, compared to 1.2 million tons in 2023/24.

• Price Trends:

  • Ukrainian wheat prices in Odessa ports rose by $5 to $215 per ton (CPT) by mid-January.

  • Russian wheat prices in Novorossiysk ports increased by $7 to $170 per ton (CPT) since early December.

• Market Analysis:

  • Lower stock levels are expected to restrict exports and support prices for the rest of the season.

  • SovEcon estimates Russia's wheat exports for 2024/25 at 43.7 million tons, lower than the USDA's 46.0 million tons estimate.

  • Ukrainian wheat exports are forecasted at 16.1 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 16.0 million tons.

Conclusion:
Wheat exports from the Black Sea region are slowing due to reduced supplies and declining stock levels. This trend, combined with rising port prices, suggests continued support for wheat quotations throughout the season.

Source: Zerno.ru